Are home prices going down in 2026?

Slightly. Redfin's median home-sale price fell 0.1% from a year earlier in late October, the first decline in more than three years. NAR's monthly median was still up 1.3% in September, and prices vary widely by metro.

Why are home prices falling?

Buyers are pulling back. Mortgage rates are around 7.24%, the typical monthly payment is up 10.7% from a year ago, and pending sales hit a record low. Sellers now outnumber buyers by 62.6%, the widest gap since at least 2013.

Are rents going up again?

Barely. Apartment List says the national median rent was $1,384 in October, up 0.1% from a year earlier, the first annual increase in more than three years. Apartments.com, which measures differently, shows rents up 1.6%.

Home prices just fell for the first time in three years. Rents keep rising though

Sellers outnumber buyers by the widest margin on record, and a 7% mortgage rate is keeping buyers away. Here's where prices are falling, and where they aren't.

The typical American home is selling for a little less than it did a year ago. The median home-sale price was $389,601 in the four weeks ending October 25, down 0.1% from a year earlier, according to Redfin. It's the second straight week of small declines, following three straight years of increases. Before last week, prices hadn't fallen in more than three years.

Rents moved the opposite way. The national median rent was $1,384 in October, up 0.1% from a year earlier, the first time in more than three years that year-over-year rent growth has been positive, according to Apartment List. Vacancy has eased to 7.0%, down from 7.3% in February. Apartments.com, which measures differently, has rents up 1.6%.

Buyers are staying home. Mortgage rates are near a three-year high. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.24% this week, down from 7.32% last week but up from 6.17% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac. At Redfin's weekly rate, the typical monthly mortgage payment is $2,786, up 10.7% from a year ago and the second-highest on record. So even with flat prices, buying costs more than it did last fall.

Demand has dropped hard. Pending sales, homes that went under contract, fell to 276,352, the lowest in Redfin's records dating back to 2021 and down 15.9% from a year earlier. They declined in all 50 of the most populous metros for the third week in a row. The National Association of Realtors said August and September were the two slowest months for home sales this year. "Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home," said NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun.

Sellers are piling up. There were about 62.6% more home sellers than buyers in September, the biggest gap in records going back to 2013, Redfin reported earlier this month. It counted 928,892 buyers, the fewest on record, and 1,510,784 sellers, the most since March 2020. Forty-one of the 50 biggest metros are buyer's markets, led by Miami, Nashville, and Houston.

"This is a buyer's market born out of caution, not strength," said Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin. Many would-be buyers have been priced out or scared off, he said, which gives the ones still shopping room to negotiate.

About 21.5% of listings had a price cut in the latest four weeks, and the median home sat on the market for 50 days. Homes sold for 98.3% of their list price on average.

Where prices are falling, and rising. The national number hides wide local swings. Among the 50 most populous metros, these had the biggest year-over-year changes in median sale price in the four weeks ending October 25:

Biggest drops	Change	Biggest gains	Change
Seattle	-5.1%	San Francisco	+15%
San Jose, CA	-4.9%	New Brunswick, NJ	+8.4%
Austin, TX	-4.6%	Pittsburgh	+7.4%
Kansas City, MO	-4.3%	Montgomery County, PA	+6.2%
Nashville, TN	-3.3%	Cleveland	+4.9%

Seattle also had the steepest drop in pending sales, down 31.6% from a year ago, followed by Atlanta at 25.9%, San Diego at 25.3%, Las Vegas at 22.7%, and Denver at 22.3%. San Francisco is the outlier, with prices up 15%.

Not every measure shows a decline yet. NAR's monthly median for existing homes was $417,500 in September, still up 1.3% from a year earlier, its 39th straight month of annual gains. Redfin's figures cover four-week periods and NAR's cover whole months, so the two measures don't always line up.

If you're shopping. Timing can help a little. Early November is typically the best time of year to get a discount in Milwaukee, Riverside, California, and Tampa, according to a Redfin analysis, while Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and West Palm Beach usually see their best deals in mid-December. If your home's value has slipped, here's how to appeal your property tax assessment.