The US is on track for its lowest murder rate ever recorded

Murder in the United States is down 16.6% through August compared with the same months of 2025, according to the Crime Index, which tracks 547 police agencies covering 111.3 million people. If that trend continue, 2026 will have the lowest murder rate the United States has ever recorded.

Crime analyst Jeff Asher, who runs the index, put it plainly in an October 19 post. "All available evidence points to murder dropping around 16ish percent in 2026," he wrote, which "points to a murder rate of around 3.5 per 100k and 12,000 or so murders," as quoted by Bearing Arms. That would be the fewest murders since 1967, Asher wrote, when the country had about 150 million fewer people.

The record it would break. The old low was set just last year. The 2025 murder rate was 4.1 per 100,000 people, which "is tied with 1955 and 1956 for the lowest murder rate," the FBI said in August. National estimates go back to 1936. Murder fell an estimated 18.1% in 2025, and violent crime overall fell 9.3%, the biggest one-year drop on record. A rate of 3.5 would be about 15% below that tie. Six years ago it was 6.6, and it hit 6.6 again in 2022, Stateline reported. Going from 6.6 to 3.5 would cut the rate nearly in half in four years.

Every major tracker points the same way. The FBI's preliminary numbers show murder down 23% in the first half of 2026, according to Stateline. The Council on Criminal Justice found the homicide rate in its 30 reporting cities was 18% lower in the first half of the year, and 51% lower than in the first half of 2022. It says the 2026 rate "will likely dip further, again reaching a new historic low." The Major Cities Chiefs Association counted 2,162 homicides in 66 big police departments from January through June, down 17.2% from 2,611. That's 449 fewer people killed in six months.

The biggest drops. In Asher's breakdown of large cities, murder is down 44.1% in Birmingham, 41.2% in Cincinnati, 40.4% in Houston, 39.6% in Nashville, 37.8% in Memphis, and 34.5% in New Orleans. Fort Worth and Jacksonville are down more than 30%. New York City, which had 438 murders in 2022 and 305 in 2025, is down another 18.8%. The police chiefs' survey shows Washington, D.C., falling to 46 homicides in the first half from 82, and Philadelphia to 83 from 114.

Where it went up. The drop isn't universal. In the police chiefs' survey, homicides rose in 16 of 66 departments and held flat in two. Chicago had 211 from January through June, up from 199, the most of any city in the survey. San Diego rose to 29 from 16, Denver to 26 from 20, and Oklahoma City to 41 from 31. Dallas was flat at 70. Small numbers swing hard, though: Orlando's 66.7% jump is four more killings, 10 instead of six. Houston's drop is 59 fewer.

Why it's falling. Nobody has a clean answer. The Council on Criminal Justice says there is "no single or easy explanation for these historic lows," and that its report "is not evidence of the success or failure of any policy or practice." Other crimes are falling too. The Crime Index shows violent crime down 5.9% and property crime down 9.5% through August, and the council found carjackings down 47% in the first half.

The 2026 numbers are still preliminary, and Asher expects this year's drop to be smaller than 2025's. The FBI's official count for 2026 won't come out until next year. To see what's happening on your own block, here's how to check crime in your neighborhood.

Here is every department in the police chiefs' survey, with homicides from January through June of each year:

Sources

• Crime Index: National murder, violent crime, and property crime trends
• Jeff Asher: Crime has continued to drop in the US in 2026
• Bearing Arms: Crime analyst says murders headed to all-time low
• FBI: 2025 Reported Crimes in the Nation statistics
• Stateline: Violent crime in US fell at record pace in 2025
• Council on Criminal Justice: Crime trends in U.S. cities, mid-year 2026 update
• Major Cities Chiefs Association: Violent Crime Survey, midyear 2026 and 2025